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Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 42.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Philadelphia's ranks #10 in that regard this season.His 52.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #79 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 43.0% this year puts him in the #67 percentile among running backs.Teams run the ball more when it's windy, and forecasts call for 18-mph wind in this game.The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 65.5 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.Philadelphia has been the #1-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 46.3% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #1-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 50.7% of their plays.The defensive ends of Tampa Bay have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Sanders finds himself in the #86 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 63 yards.The Eagles are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.The Buccaneers defense has allowed 90 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #3-least in football.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 4.23 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #9-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Tampa Bay have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Tampa Bay have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Sanders for a -9.5% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Eagles have played in 5 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #13-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #16-fastest paced offense this season.The linebackers of Tampa Bay have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Sanders to exceed his player prop total 59.8% of the time. He projects for 54.5 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $15.58. That makes its return on investment yield +14%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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