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Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
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Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 64.5 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 65.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has ranked #10 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 53.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #78 percentile among running backs.He has received 44.1% of Philadelphia's carries this year -- #31 percentile when it comes to running backs.Philadelphia has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#11-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Philadelphia is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 46.0% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL), and they project to run 46.0% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 53.1% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New York Giants have ranked #26 against the run this year, holding opponents to 127 yards per game on the ground.The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Sanders has been the #10-leading rusher this season, tallying 64 yards per game on the ground.Giants defensive ends have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sanders is projected for -7.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Eagles project to run 63.5 total plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.58 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#21-least in football).Giants defensive tackles have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Giants linebackers have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Giants safeties have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked box 14.0% of the time this season -- #16-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 60.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 46.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.55 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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