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Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-115/-120) with an implied projection of 65.0 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -115.

PROS:

Sanders has been the #27-leading rusher this season, tallying 49 yards per game on the ground.

The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has ranked #9 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.

He has been on the field for 56.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #83 percentile among running backs.

He has received 41.2% of Philadelphia's carries this year -- #35 percentile when it comes to running backs.

Philadelphia has played in the #9-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.

The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The Eagles project to run 64.9 total plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.

Philadelphia is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.

This offense runs the ball 43.9% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL), and they project to run 43.9% of the time in this contest.

This offenses projects to runs 49.8% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.

Giants linebackers have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.

CONS:

NEUTRAL:

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sanders is projected for 7.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #80 percentile among running backs.

The New York Giants have ranked #22 against the run this year, holding opponents to 122 yards per game on the ground.

In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.55 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#20-least in football).

Giants defensive ends have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

Giants defensive tackles have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

Giants safeties have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked box 13.2% of the time this season -- #20-most in football.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 78.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.7% of the time.

The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.12. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.

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