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Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-115/-120) with an implied projection of 65.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Sanders has been the #27-leading rusher this season, tallying 49 yards per game on the ground.The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has ranked #9 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 56.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #83 percentile among running backs.He has received 41.2% of Philadelphia's carries this year -- #35 percentile when it comes to running backs.Philadelphia has played in the #9-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Eagles project to run 64.9 total plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Philadelphia is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 43.9% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL), and they project to run 43.9% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 49.8% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Giants linebackers have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Sanders is projected for 7.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #80 percentile among running backs.The New York Giants have ranked #22 against the run this year, holding opponents to 122 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.55 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#20-least in football).Giants defensive ends have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Giants defensive tackles have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Giants safeties have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked box 13.2% of the time this season -- #20-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 78.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.12. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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