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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Evans has been on the field for 84.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 91.4% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 17.8% -- #73 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.99 yards per target this season, ranking in the #90 percentile.Tampa Bay has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.New Orleans's defense has allowed 176 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#6-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (8.77) against the Saints this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 72.0% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 68.4% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Evans's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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The Buccaneers project to run 60.1 plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.Tampa Bay is a 11.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Evans is projected for 2.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.Evans has been in the #56 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 66.4% completion rate.The Saints have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.1% of their targets this season, (#19-most in the league).New Orleans Saints cornerbacks rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.New Orleans Saints safeties rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 69.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.69. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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