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Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
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Right now, Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Pittman ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 91.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Pittman ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 96.5% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Pittman ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 25.3% of passes this season.Pittman's 69.5% completion rate marks him in the #73 percentile among receivers.The Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed 9.17 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #29-highest among NFL opponents.The Jacksonville Jaguars rank #32-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 75.3%.As a unit, the Jaguars cornerbacks rank #26 in pass coverage.Indianapolis has run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Indianapolis has run the #31-fastest paced offense this season.The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #26-most on the game slate.The Colts are a 14.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.3% of the time (#26 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Indianapolis to drop back to pass on 49.0% of their plays in this game (#32-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Pittman for a 0.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Pittman ranks in the #66 percentile and has put up 8.64 yards per target this season.The Jaguars's pass defense ranks #19-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 159 yards per game this season.As a unit, the Jaguars safeties rank #13 in pass coverage.Indianapolis's O-Line grades out as the #19-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Pittman open.Indianapolis's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.47 seconds on average this year (#20-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Colts have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Pittman to exceed his player prop total 53.4% of the time. He projects for 62.0 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.08 with a negative ROI of 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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