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Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Pittman has been on the field for 90.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 96.3% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 23.1% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.84 yards per target this season, ranking in the #86 percentile.Pittman has been in the #86 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 75.7% completion rate.Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Colts project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.Indianapolis is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 62.1% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 32.1% of their passes this year, #5-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Opposing wideouts have put up the #29-most yards per target (7.38) against the Buccaneers this season.The Buccaneers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.6% of their targets this season, (#23-most in the league).Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Pittman is projected for 0.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#17-most in football).This offense passes the ball 60.6% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).Pittman's offensive line has been #19 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Colts offensive line has given the QB 2.48 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#19-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.8%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 71.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.96 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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