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Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Gallup ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 82.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Gallup ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 86.1% of Dallas's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Gallup ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 16.9% of passes this season.Dallas's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.The Arizona Cardinals rank #23-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.8%.In a neutral context, Dallas has run the #2-fastest paced offense this season.The Dallas Cowboys are projected to run 68.1 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.0% of the time (#9 in the NFL).Dallas's O-Line grades out as the #1-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Gallup open.
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CONS:
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Gallup's 58.9% completion rate marks him in the #23 percentile among receivers.The Cardinals's pass defense ranks #9-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 148 yards per game this season.The Cowboys enter as a 6.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Gallup for a -1.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Gallup ranks in the #36 percentile and has put up 7.62 yards per target this season.The Arizona Cardinals have allowed 8.00 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #14-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Cardinals cornerbacks rank #19 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Cardinals safeties rank #13 in pass coverage.THE BLITZ projects Dallas to drop back to pass on 62.0% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Dallas's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.45 seconds on average this year (#17-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Dallas has run play-action on 25.5% of their passes this year, #16-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Cowboys have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Gallup to exceed his player prop total 59.1% of the time. He projects for 54.2 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $12.07. That makes its return on investment yield +11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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