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Michael Carter Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Right now, Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 38.8 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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His 50.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #74 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 50.6% this year puts him in the #81 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, New York has run the #8-fastest paced offense this season.The New York Jets are projected to run 65.6 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (10.6% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Buccaneers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #23-most in the NFL this year at 11.9% of the time.
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CONS:
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The Jets are a 14.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #28-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 36.3% of their plays.The Buccaneers defense has allowed 84 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #1-least in football.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 4.04 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #6-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Tampa Bay have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Tampa Bay have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Carter finds himself in the #57 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 47 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New York's ranks #13 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Carter for a 5.3% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Jets have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.New York has been the #16-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.9% run rate in a neutral context.The defensive ends of Tampa Bay have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Tampa Bay have been the #20-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Carter to exceed his player prop total 68.1% of the time. He projects for 60.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $32.99. That makes its return on investment yield +30%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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