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Michael Carter Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
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Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 51.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among running backs.He has received 53.7% of New York's carries this year -- #20 percentile when it comes to running backs.The New York Jets have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 10.6% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Jets project to run 61.9 total plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.New York is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to runs 36.7% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Miami Dolphins have ranked #9 against the run this year, holding opponents to 104 yards per game on the ground.Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #9 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Carter has been the #34-leading rusher this season, tallying 43 yards per game on the ground.The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #13 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Carter is projected for 2.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#17-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 37.1% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.1% of the time in this contest.In terms of efficiency, Miami's defense has allowed 4.58 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#21-least in football).Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Dolphins linebackers have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Dolphins safeties have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 58.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.01. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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