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Michael Carter

Michael Carter Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
  • He has been on the field for 51.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 53.7% of New York's carries this year -- #20 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The New York Jets have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Jets have faced a stacked box 10.6% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.

  • CONS:
  • The Jets project to run 61.9 total plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.
  • New York is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 36.7% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins have ranked #9 against the run this year, holding opponents to 104 yards per game on the ground.
  • Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #9 most in the league.

  • Carter has been the #34-leading rusher this season, tallying 43 yards per game on the ground.
  • The New York Jets offensive line has ranked #13 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Carter is projected for 2.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • New York has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#17-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 37.1% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.1% of the time in this contest.
  • In terms of efficiency, Miami's defense has allowed 4.58 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#21-least in football).
  • Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Dolphins linebackers have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Dolphins safeties have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 58.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.01. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.

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