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Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 41.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 42.2 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 41.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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His 49.5% snap rate this year puts him in the #77 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 49.6% this year puts him in the #80 percentile among running backs.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 4.67 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #24-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Kansas City have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Kansas City have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Gordon finds himself in the #73 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 54 yards.This year, the Broncos have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Denver's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.In a neutral context, Denver has run the #30-fastest paced offense this season.The Broncos are a 11.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Denver's ranks #19 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Gordon for a -3.1% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Denver Broncos are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.Denver has been the #12-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 40.8% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #17-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 39.0% of their plays.The Chiefs defense has allowed 111 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #18-least in football.The defensive ends of Kansas City have been the #20-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Kansas City have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Gordon to exceed his player prop total 61.8% of the time. He projects for 54.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $16.07. That makes its return on investment yield +13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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