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Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 52.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #78 percentile among running backs.He has received 51.5% of Denver's carries this year -- #23 percentile when it comes to running backs.Denver is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Bengals linebackers have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Gordon has been the #16-leading rusher this season, tallying 60 yards per game on the ground.Denver has played in the #4-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Broncos project to run 59.8 total plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked #4 against the run this year, holding opponents to 93 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Cincinnati's defense has allowed 4.22 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Denver Broncos offensive line has ranked #19 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gordon is projected for -5.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offense runs the ball 39.5% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.5% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 43.0% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Bengals defensive ends have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bengals safeties have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Denver Broncos have faced a stacked box 15.4% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #12 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.31 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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