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Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals
Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
  • He has been on the field for 52.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #78 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 51.5% of Denver's carries this year -- #23 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Denver is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Bengals linebackers have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Gordon has been the #16-leading rusher this season, tallying 60 yards per game on the ground.
  • Denver has played in the #4-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Broncos project to run 59.8 total plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked #4 against the run this year, holding opponents to 93 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Cincinnati's defense has allowed 4.22 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).
  • Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • The Denver Broncos offensive line has ranked #19 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gordon is projected for -5.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 39.5% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.5% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 43.0% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Bengals defensive ends have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Bengals safeties have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Denver Broncos have faced a stacked box 15.4% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #12 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.0% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.31 and with a negative ROI of -5%.

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