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Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions
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Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 52.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #78 percentile among running backs.He has received 50.8% of Denver's carries this year -- #22 percentile when it comes to running backs.Denver is a 12.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 46.7% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Detroit Lions have ranked #29 against the run this year, holding opponents to 134 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Detroit's defense has allowed 4.59 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#23-least in football).Lions defensive ends have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Gordon has been the #21-leading rusher this season, tallying 55 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gordon is projected for -10.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Denver has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Denver Broncos offensive line has ranked #19 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The Broncos project to run 61.2 total plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 38.9% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.9% of the time in this contest.Lions defensive tackles have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions linebackers have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions safeties have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Denver Broncos have faced a stacked box 15.4% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.The Detroit Lions have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #18 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 51.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.59 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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