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Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Gordon has been the #24-leading rusher this season, tallying 52 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 53.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #80 percentile among running backs.He has received 50.2% of Denver's carries this year -- #26 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #32 against the run this year, holding opponents to 149 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.93 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#31-least in football).Chargers defensive ends have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Chargers linebackers have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Denver Broncos offensive line has ranked #20 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gordon is projected for -0.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #48 percentile among running backs.The Broncos project to run 62.1 total plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 37.7% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.7% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 39.9% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chargers safeties have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Denver Broncos have faced a stacked box 15.0% of the time this season -- #15-most in football.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #16 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.73 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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