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Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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Hardman ranks in the #73 percentile and has put up 8.94 yards per target this season.Hardman's 74.9% completion rate marks him in the #87 percentile among receivers.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 64.0 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.6% of the time (#2 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 65.2% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Hardman open.
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CONS:
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As a unit, the Bengals cornerbacks rank #2 in pass coverage.The Chiefs are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Hardman ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 52.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Hardman ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 56.5% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Hardman ranks in the #57 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.1% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Hardman for a -2.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Bengals's pass defense ranks #21-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 152 yards per game this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 8.33 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #19-highest among NFL opponents.The Cincinnati Bengals rank #21-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.2%.As a unit, the Bengals safeties rank #19 in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hardman to exceed his player prop total 58.5% of the time. He projects for 32.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $12.93. That makes its return on investment yield +12%.
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