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Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
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Right now, Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 30.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Hardman ranks in the #73 percentile and has put up 8.94 yards per target this season.Hardman's 74.9% completion rate marks him in the #87 percentile among receivers.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The weather forecast here calls for 2-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 64.3 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.6% of the time (#2 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 65.9% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Hardman open.
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CONS:
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The Bills's pass defense ranks #1-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 115 yards per game this season.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 6.36 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #1-highest among NFL opponents.The Buffalo Bills rank #3-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.9%.As a unit, the Bills cornerbacks rank #9 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Bills safeties rank #1 in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Hardman ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 52.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Hardman ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 56.5% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Hardman ranks in the #57 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.1% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Hardman for a -2.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hardman to exceed his player prop total 49.0% of the time. He projects for 27.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.88 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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