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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - NFC Championship Game
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 277.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 274.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 277.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #6-best in the league, Stafford has passed for271 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Stafford has been #6 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.66 yards per target.Los Angeles's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.2 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.2% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 65.4% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.San Francisco has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.9% of their targets, which ranks them #23-best in the NFL.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #28-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's linebackers rank #26 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Rams have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #5-most in football and means Stafford's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Rams enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.San Francisco's #8-ranked pass defense has allowed 216 passing yards per game this year.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #4-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's defensive ends rank #2 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #20-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.3% clip.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.In terms of passing efficiency, San Francisco's defense is #15-best. This is because they allowed 7.55 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #14-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's defensive tackles rank #15 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Stafford to exceed his player prop total 60.2% of the time. He projects for 307.2 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $16.48. That makes its return on investment yield +15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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