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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 278.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 282.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 278.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #8-best in the league, Stafford has passed for275 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Stafford has been #6 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.72 yards per target.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.5% of the time (#5 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 65.2% of their plays in this game (#5-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Los Angeles's offensive has kept pressure off Matthew Stafford for 2.57 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL).San Francisco has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.2% of their targets, which ranks them #25-best in the NFL.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #28-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's linebackers rank #29 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Rams have played in 8 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #8-most in football and means Stafford's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Rams enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Los Angeles has run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.San Francisco's #10-ranked pass defense has allowed 232 passing yards per game this year.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #5-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's defensive ends rank #1 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the 49ers, they've stacked the box on 9.7% of their plays this season, #26-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #20-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.5% clip.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.0 plays in this matchup, the #19-most on the game slate.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Rams have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).In terms of passing efficiency, San Francisco's defense is #17-best. This is because they allowed 7.65 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #12-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's defensive tackles rank #19 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Stafford to exceed his player prop total 62.3% of the time. He projects for 314.6 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $18.92. That makes its return on investment yield +16%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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