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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 289.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 285.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 289.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #8-best in the league, Stafford has passed for273 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Stafford has been #7 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.66 yards per target.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.5% of the time (#5 in the NFL).Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Los Angeles's offensive has kept pressure off Matthew Stafford for 2.57 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL).Baltimore's #32-ranked pass defense has allowed 289 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Baltimore's defense is #31-best. This is because they allowed 8.64 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #26-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #32-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Baltimore's defensive ends rank #26 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Ravens, they've stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays this season, #8-most in football.
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CONS:
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This year, the Rams have played in 8 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #6-most in football and means Stafford's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Rams are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Los Angeles has run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Baltimore has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.9% of their targets, which ranks them #6-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Baltimore's linebackers rank #7 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #23-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.1% clip.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #13-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #16-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 61.7% of their plays in this game (#12-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Rams have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).The Baltimore Ravens have had the #11-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Baltimore's defensive tackles rank #22 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Stafford to exceed his player prop total 48.0% of the time. He projects for 283.8 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.20 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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