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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
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Right now, Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 221.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 214.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 221.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #11-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.3% clip.Atlanta's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.The Falcons enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Atlanta to drop back to pass on 66.6% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's defensive tackles rank #26 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's linebackers rank #26 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Falcons have played in 6 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #10-most in football and means Ryan's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Atlanta Falcons are projected to run 60.3 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.Atlanta's O-Line grades out as the #31-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.New Orleans has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.2% of their targets, which ranks them #5-best in the NFL.The New Orleans Saints have had the #7-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have had the #8-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #15-best in the league, Ryan has passed for237 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Ryan has been #17 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.19 yards per target.In a neutral context, Atlanta has run the #17-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.5% of the time (#14 in the NFL).Atlanta has run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Falcons have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).New Orleans's #13-ranked pass defense has allowed 237 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, New Orleans's defense is #12-best. This is because they allowed 7.42 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New Orleans Saints have had the #12-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New Orleans's defensive ends rank #14 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Saints, they've stacked the box on 13.3% of their plays this season, #19-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Ryan to exceed his player prop total 69.3% of the time. He projects for 276.4 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $34.06. That makes its return on investment yield +30%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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