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Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
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Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Jones has been on the field for 90.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.3% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 19.6% -- #80 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Houston's defense has allowed 172 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.62) against the Texans this season.Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.Houston Texans safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.50 yards per target this season, ranking in the #31 percentile.Jacksonville has played in the #21-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Jacksonville is a 6.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 53.3% of the time in this contest (#30 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for 0.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.Jones has been in the #41 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.0% completion rate.The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.7% of their targets this season, (#14-most in the league).The Jaguars project to run 62.3 plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).Jones's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 44.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.58 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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