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Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -115.
  • Jones has been on the field for 90.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 93.3% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 19.6% -- #80 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Houston's defense has allowed 172 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.62) against the Texans this season.
  • Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • Houston Texans safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.50 yards per target this season, ranking in the #31 percentile.
  • Jacksonville has played in the #21-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Jacksonville is a 6.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 53.3% of the time in this contest (#30 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for 0.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Jones has been in the #41 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.0% completion rate.
  • The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.7% of their targets this season, (#14-most in the league).
  • The Jaguars project to run 62.3 plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).
  • Jones's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 44.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.6% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.58 and with a negative ROI of -6%.

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