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Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-120/-115) with an implied projection of 37.9 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -115.
  • Jones has been on the field for 90.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 92.9% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 19.5% -- #80 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Tennessee's defense has allowed 197 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#1-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #8-most yards per target (9.11) against the Titans this season.
  • The Titans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.5% of their targets this season, (#9-most in the league).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Jacksonville is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.27 yards per target this season, ranking in the #25 percentile.
  • Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Jaguars project to run 60.8 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.1% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for -0.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #58 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Jones has been in the #35 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.3% completion rate.
  • Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.7% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Jones's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 45.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.58. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.

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