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Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
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Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Jones has been on the field for 90.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 92.2% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 20.7% -- #83 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 71.1% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jaguars project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.40 yards per target this season, ranking in the #17 percentile.Jones has been in the #17 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.9% completion rate.Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.4%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for 0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #63 percentile among wide receivers.Atlanta's defense has allowed 158 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#18-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #18-most yards per target (8.43) against the Falcons this season.Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 59.9% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.5% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Jones's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 26.0% of their passes this year, #16-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.18. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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