| |
Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 45.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 46.3 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -120.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
In terms of playing time, Brown ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 79.8% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Brown ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 89.0% of Baltimore's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Brown ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 26.8% of passes this season.This year, the Ravens have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.As a unit, the Steelers cornerbacks rank #23 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Steelers safeties rank #30 in pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens are projected to run 64.5 plays in this matchup, the #7-most on the game slate.Baltimore's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Brown open.Baltimore has run play-action on 36.3% of their passes this year, #2-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Brown ranks in the #29 percentile and has put up 7.35 yards per target this season.Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.In a neutral context, Baltimore has run the #24-fastest paced offense this season.The Ravens enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Baltimore to drop back to pass on 50.6% of their plays in this game (#29-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This week, THE BLITZ projects Brown for a 0.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Brown's 66.2% completion rate marks him in the #54 percentile among receivers.The Steelers's pass defense ranks #12-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 150 yards per game this season.The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed 8.08 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #14-highest among NFL opponents.The Pittsburgh Steelers rank #11-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 64.9%.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.8% of the time (#12 in the NFL).Baltimore's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Ravens have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.5%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Brown to exceed his player prop total 50.1% of the time. He projects for 45.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.13 with a negative ROI of -5%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
