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Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 51.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Brown ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 80.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Brown ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 89.1% of Baltimore's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Brown ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 26.7% of passes this season.This year, the Ravens have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.As a unit, the Rams safeties rank #23 in pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens are projected to run 65.7 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.The Ravens are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Baltimore's O-Line grades out as the #8-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Brown open.Baltimore has run play-action on 36.3% of their passes this year, #2-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Brown ranks in the #32 percentile and has put up 7.58 yards per target this season.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 7.63 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #7-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Rams cornerbacks rank #2 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Baltimore has run the #24-fastest paced offense this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Brown for a -0.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Brown's 68.3% completion rate marks him in the #66 percentile among receivers.The Rams's pass defense ranks #18-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 156 yards per game this season.The Los Angeles Rams rank #17-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.3%.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.1% of the time (#12 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Baltimore to drop back to pass on 56.9% of their plays in this game (#22-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Baltimore's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Ravens have faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Brown to exceed his player prop total 51.8% of the time. He projects for 53.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.67 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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