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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Right now, Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 37.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 38.2 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 38.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Valdes-Scantling ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 67.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of earning targets, Valdes-Scantling ranks in the #68 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 15.3% of passes this season.The Vikings's pass defense ranks #31-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 187 yards per game this season.The Minnesota Vikings have allowed 9.07 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #28-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Vikings cornerbacks rank #32 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.9% of the time (#7 in the NFL).
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CONS:
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Valdes-Scantling's 57.3% completion rate marks him in the #15 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Vikings safeties rank #6 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Green Bay has run the #32-fastest paced offense this season.The Green Bay Packers are projected to run 61.6 plays in this matchup, the #26-most on the game slate.The Packers are a 12.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of route running, Valdes-Scantling ranks in the #65 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 74.9% of Green Bay's dropbacks this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Valdes-Scantling for a 1.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Valdes-Scantling ranks in the #61 percentile and has put up 8.47 yards per target this season.The Minnesota Vikings rank #19-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.6%.THE BLITZ projects Green Bay to drop back to pass on 58.4% of their plays in this game (#20-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Green Bay's O-Line grades out as the #12-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Valdes-Scantling open.Green Bay's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.45 seconds on average this year (#17-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Green Bay has run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Packers have faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Valdes-Scantling to exceed his player prop total 55.9% of the time. He projects for 43.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $2.87. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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