| |
Marquez Callaway Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Marquez Callaway Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 44.5 (-105/-125), with an implied projection of 42.9 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -125.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
In terms of playing time, Callaway ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 72.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Callaway ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 79.7% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Callaway ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.7% of passes this season.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Falcons's pass defense ranks #25-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 166 yards per game this season.The Atlanta Falcons rank #30-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 69.8%.As a unit, the Falcons safeties rank #28 in pass coverage.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Saints have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Callaway's 57.2% completion rate marks him in the #18 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Falcons cornerbacks rank #10 in pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.5 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.The Saints enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.9% of the time (#30 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New Orleans to drop back to pass on 49.1% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This week, THE BLITZ projects Callaway for a 0.8% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Callaway ranks in the #63 percentile and has put up 8.56 yards per target this season.The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 8.26 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #18-highest among NFL opponents.In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #20-fastest paced offense this season.New Orleans's O-Line grades out as the #20-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Callaway open.New Orleans has run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Callaway to exceed his player prop total 53.1% of the time. He projects for 48.0 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $3.81. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
