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Marquez Callaway Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Marquez Callaway Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 34.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Callaway ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 71.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Callaway ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 79.0% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Callaway ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 16.8% of passes this season.New Orleans's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.The Dolphins's pass defense ranks #29-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 176 yards per game this season.The Saints enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Saints have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).
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CONS:
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Callaway's 56.0% completion rate marks him in the #14 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Dolphins safeties rank #5 in pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time (#30 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New Orleans to drop back to pass on 50.2% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Callaway for a 2.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Callaway ranks in the #64 percentile and has put up 8.59 yards per target this season.The Miami Dolphins have allowed 8.44 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.The Miami Dolphins rank #12-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.5%.As a unit, the Dolphins cornerbacks rank #19 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.New Orleans's O-Line grades out as the #19-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Callaway open.New Orleans has run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Callaway to exceed his player prop total 57.6% of the time. He projects for 42.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $8.84. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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