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Mark Ingram Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
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Right now, Mark Ingram Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 30.1 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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His 43.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #68 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 46.3% this year puts him in the #74 percentile among running backs.This year, the Saints have played in 8 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #6-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Saints are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.New Orleans has been the #4-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 43.1% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #3-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 50.2% of their plays.The defensive ends of Carolina have been the #29-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Carolina have been the #25-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for New Orleans this week.New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (18.3% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Panthers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #3-most in the NFL this year at 21.0% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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Ingram finds himself in the #49 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 40 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New Orleans's ranks #16 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #19-fastest paced offense this season.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.The Panthers defense has allowed 119 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #21-least in football.The Carolina Panthers have allowed 4.39 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #13-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Carolina have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Carolina have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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