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Mark Ingram

Mark Ingram Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
Mark Ingram Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 54.3 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -120.
  • He has received 51.2% of New Orleans's carries this year -- #23 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • New Orleans has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 42.5% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.5% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 52.8% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Cowboys linebackers have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Saints passing the ball more than usual.
  • The Saints project to run 61.3 total plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.
  • New Orleans is a 6.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked box 18.3% of the time this season -- #6-most in football.

  • Ingram has been the #32-leading rusher this season, tallying 45 yards per game on the ground.
  • The New Orleans Saints offensive line has ranked #15 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 42.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #65 percentile among running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Ingram is projected for 6.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The New Orleans Saints have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have ranked #12 against the run this year, holding opponents to 105 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Dallas's defense has allowed 4.42 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#16-least in football).
  • Cowboys safeties have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #15 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 71.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.7% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $20.21. It's return on investment would yeild 17%.

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