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Mark Ingram Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
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Mark Ingram Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 54.3 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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He has received 51.2% of New Orleans's carries this year -- #23 percentile when it comes to running backs.New Orleans has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 42.5% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.5% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 52.8% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Cowboys linebackers have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Saints passing the ball more than usual.The Saints project to run 61.3 total plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.New Orleans is a 6.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked box 18.3% of the time this season -- #6-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Ingram has been the #32-leading rusher this season, tallying 45 yards per game on the ground.The New Orleans Saints offensive line has ranked #15 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 42.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #65 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Ingram is projected for 6.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The New Orleans Saints have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Dallas Cowboys have ranked #12 against the run this year, holding opponents to 105 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Dallas's defense has allowed 4.42 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#16-least in football).Cowboys safeties have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #15 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 71.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $20.21. It's return on investment would yeild 17%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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