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Mac Jones Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 197.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 209.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 197.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #5-best in the league, completing passes at a 68.3% clip.In terms of efficiency, Jones has been #9 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.53 yards per target.The New England Patriots are projected to run 63.9 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.The Patriots enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects New England to drop back to pass on 57.6% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Buffalo Bills have had the #25-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, New England has run the #25-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).Buffalo's #1-ranked pass defense has allowed 180 passing yards per game this year.Buffalo has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.8% of their targets, which ranks them #2-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Buffalo's defense is #1-best. This is because they allowed 6.53 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Buffalo Bills have had the #9-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Buffalo Bills have had the #1-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Buffalo's linebackers rank #8 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #16-best in the league, Jones has passed for231 yards per game.This year, the Patriots have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.New England's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Buffalo's defensive ends rank #11 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Buffalo's defensive tackles rank #14 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jones to exceed his player prop total 47.7% of the time. He projects for 191.7 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.23 with a negative ROI of 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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