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Mac Jones Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
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Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 212.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 225.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 212.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #2-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.8% clip.Efficiency-wise, Jones has been #8 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.60 yards per target.New England has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England have faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (26.0%).Buffalo's linebackers grade out as the #25-best in pass coverage this year.
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CONS:
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The New England Patriots have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 56.9% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Buffalo Bills enter this game with the #1-best pass defense this season, allowing 194 yards per game through the air.The Bills have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.8% of their targets, ranking #4-best in the NFL.The Buffalo Bills defense ranks #1-best in football in Yards per Target at 6.46.Buffalo's cornerbacks grade out as the #7-best in pass coverage this year.Buffalo's safeties grade out as the #1-best in pass coverage this year.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box on 10.6% of their plays this season, #24-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jones has passed for 233 yards per game this year, #16-best in the league.The Patriots project to run 63.4 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.Mac Jones's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Patriots offensive line has given Mac Jones 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-best in football).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.3% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.Bills defensive ends have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Bills defensive tackles have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Bills linebackers have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Jones putting up 213.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$7.11 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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