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Mac Jones Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 191.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 214.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 191.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #2-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 71.2% clip.Efficiency-wise, Jones has been #10 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.71 yards per target.The Patriots project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.New England is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Mac Jones's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England have faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#26.0%).Bills linebackers have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The New England Patriots have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 55.3% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Buffalo Bills enter this game with the #1-best pass defense this season, allowing 200 yards per game through the air.The Bills have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7% of their targets, ranking #3 in the NFL.Buffalo's defense has been #1-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 6.46 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Buffalo Bills have had the #3-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Buffalo Bills have had the #1-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bills defensive ends have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box on 10.6% of their plays this season, #24-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jones has passed for 245 yards per game this year, #15-best in the league.New England has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offense passes the ball 61.1% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).The Patriots offensive line has given Mac Jones 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.3% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.The Buffalo Bills have had the #21-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bills defensive tackles have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 175.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $6.17. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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