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Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
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Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 61.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among running backs.He has received 65.3% of Tampa Bay's carries this year -- #7 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buccaneers project to run 64.6 total plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.Tampa Bay is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Bills safeties have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 10.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #24 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Fournette has been the #19-leading rusher this season, tallying 55 yards per game on the ground.Tampa Bay has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 27.8% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL), and they project to run 27.8% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 29.4% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Buffalo Bills have ranked #7 against the run this year, holding opponents to 100 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Buffalo's defense has allowed 3.89 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#3-least in football).Bills defensive tackles have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bills linebackers have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has ranked #17 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Fournette is projected for 4.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Bills defensive ends have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced a stacked box 12.7% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.17 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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