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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -115.
  • He has been on the field for 61.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 65.3% of Tampa Bay's carries this year -- #7 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Buccaneers project to run 64.6 total plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.
  • Tampa Bay is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Bills safeties have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 10.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #24 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Fournette has been the #19-leading rusher this season, tallying 55 yards per game on the ground.
  • Tampa Bay has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 27.8% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL), and they project to run 27.8% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 29.4% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Buffalo Bills have ranked #7 against the run this year, holding opponents to 100 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Buffalo's defense has allowed 3.89 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#3-least in football).
  • Bills defensive tackles have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Bills linebackers have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has ranked #17 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Fournette is projected for 4.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Bills defensive ends have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced a stacked box 12.7% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.6% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.17 and with a negative ROI of -5%.

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