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Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Fournette has been the #23-leading rusher this season, tallying 52 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 56.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #84 percentile among running backs.He has received 63.8% of Tampa Bay's carries this year -- #7 percentile when it comes to running backs.Tampa Bay is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #24-most in football.
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CONS:
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Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Buccaneers project to run 61.8 total plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 27.7% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL), and they project to run 27.7% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 28.6% of the time in this contest (#30 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Colts linebackers have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has ranked #16 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Fournette is projected for -1.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #39 percentile among running backs.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #13-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Indianapolis Colts have ranked #14 against the run this year, holding opponents to 109 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Indianapolis's defense has allowed 4.42 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#15-least in football).Colts defensive ends have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Colts defensive tackles have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Colts safeties have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #19 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.05 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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