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Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
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Right now, Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 34.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Shenault ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 69.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of earning targets, Shenault ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.2% of passes this season.As a unit, the Colts safeties rank #26 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Jacksonville has run the #2-fastest paced offense this season.The Jaguars are a 14.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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Shenault ranks in the #12 percentile and has put up 6.00 yards per target this season.The Colts's pass defense ranks #7-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 139 yards per game this season.The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 7.30 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #3-highest among NFL opponents.The Indianapolis Colts rank #4-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 61.2%.The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to run 59.2 plays in this matchup, the #32-most on the game slate.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Jaguars have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of route running, Shenault ranks in the #63 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 72.3% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Shenault for a -0.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Shenault's 65.3% completion rate marks him in the #52 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Colts cornerbacks rank #13 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.2% of the time (#19 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Jacksonville to drop back to pass on 62.8% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Jacksonville's O-Line grades out as the #13-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Shenault open.Jacksonville has run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Shenault to exceed his player prop total 56.1% of the time. He projects for 36.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $5.59. That makes its return on investment yield +5%.
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