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Laviska Shenault Jr.

Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).
  • Shenault has been on the field for 73.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 75.6% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 18.8% -- #76 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • The Rams have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.5% of their targets this season, (#5-most in the league).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Jaguars project to run 64.3 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.
  • Jacksonville is a 14.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 65.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 5.99 yards per target this season, ranking in the #12 percentile.
  • Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.6% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Shenault is projected for 1.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Shenault has been in the #55 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.7% completion rate.
  • Los Angeles's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#15-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #21-most yards per target (7.96) against the Rams this season.
  • Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.
  • Shenault's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.0% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.05 and with a negative ROI of -1%.

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