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Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
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Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 26.9 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Baltimore is a 4.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 53.6% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Pittsburgh Steelers have ranked #27 against the run this year, holding opponents to 130 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 4.85 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#30-least in football).
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CONS:
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The Baltimore Ravens have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Ravens project to run 61.4 total plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.Steelers defensive ends have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 19.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #5 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Murray has been the #47-leading rusher this season, tallying 32 yards per game on the ground.The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has ranked #18 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 41.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #64 percentile among running backs.He has received 30.1% of Baltimore's carries this year -- #44 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Murray is projected for -8.5% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Baltimore has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 39.8% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.8% of the time in this contest.Steelers defensive tackles have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Steelers linebackers have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Steelers safeties have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Baltimore Ravens have faced a stacked box 15.5% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 29.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.67 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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