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Laquon Treadwell Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
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Right now, Laquon Treadwell Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 44.7 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Treadwell for a 6.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.As a unit, the Colts safeties rank #26 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Jacksonville has run the #2-fastest paced offense this season.The Jaguars are a 14.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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The Colts's pass defense ranks #7-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 139 yards per game this season.The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 7.30 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #3-highest among NFL opponents.The Indianapolis Colts rank #4-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 61.2%.The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to run 59.2 plays in this matchup, the #32-most on the game slate.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Jaguars have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Treadwell ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 63.2% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Treadwell ranks in the #56 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 60.1% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Treadwell ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.4% of passes this season.Treadwell ranks in the #64 percentile and has put up 8.63 yards per target this season.Treadwell's 65.3% completion rate marks him in the #51 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Colts cornerbacks rank #13 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.2% of the time (#19 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Jacksonville to drop back to pass on 62.8% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Jacksonville's O-Line grades out as the #13-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Treadwell open.Jacksonville has run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Treadwell to exceed his player prop total 50.2% of the time. He projects for 45.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.52 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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