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Kyler Murray Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 255.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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This year, at #10-best in the league, Murray has passed for262 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #6-best in the league, completing passes at a 68.1% clip.In terms of efficiency, Murray has been #8 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.62 yards per target.The Arizona Cardinals are projected to run 65.6 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Cardinals enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Arizona to drop back to pass on 59.9% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #24-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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This year, the Cardinals have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #7-most in football and means Murray's numbers may be artificially inflated.In terms of passing efficiency, Los Angeles's defense is #9-best. This is because they allowed 7.24 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #3-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #10-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive ends rank #1 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's linebackers rank #9 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Arizona has run the #15-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.4% of the time (#15 in the NFL).Arizona's O-Line grades out as the #14-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Los Angeles's #16-ranked pass defense has allowed 233 passing yards per game this year.Los Angeles has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.5% of their targets, which ranks them #19-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive tackles rank #20 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Murray to exceed his player prop total 50.6% of the time. He projects for 257.2 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.68 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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