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Kyler Murray Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 253.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 249.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 253.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #9-best in the league, Murray has passed for264 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #7-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.9% clip.In terms of efficiency, Murray has been #4 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.83 yards per target.The Arizona Cardinals are projected to run 67.5 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The Cardinals enter as a 6.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Arizona to drop back to pass on 62.4% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Arizona has run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Dallas's defensive tackles rank #24 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Cardinals have played in 7 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #9-most in football and means Murray's numbers may be artificially inflated.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Cardinals have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).Dallas has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.1% of their targets, which ranks them #1-best in the NFL.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #10-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Dallas's linebackers rank #4 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Arizona has run the #16-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time (#16 in the NFL).Arizona's O-Line grades out as the #16-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Dallas's #20-ranked pass defense has allowed 253 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Dallas's defense is #12-best. This is because they allowed 7.47 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #11-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #15-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Dallas's defensive ends rank #19 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Cowboys, they've stacked the box on 15.1% of their plays this season, #15-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Murray to exceed his player prop total 49.0% of the time. He projects for 250.8 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.41 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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