My Account Log Out
Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 267.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 261.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 267.5 @ -115.
  • Murray has passed for 267 yards per game this year, #9-best in the league.
  • He's been the #5-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.0% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Murray has been #3 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.13 yards per target.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.
  • Indianapolis's safeties grade out as the #27-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Colts defensive ends have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Arizona has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#9-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
  • The Colts have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.3% of their targets, ranking #7-best in the NFL.
  • The Indianapolis Colts defense ranks #9-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.42.
  • Indianapolis's cornerbacks grade out as the #8-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Colts defensive tackles have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Colts linebackers have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • The Arizona Cardinals have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Cardinals project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 58.9% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Kyler Murray's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Indianapolis Colts enter this game with the #17-best pass defense this season, allowing 252 yards per game through the air.
  • Indianapolis's linebackers grade out as the #12-best in pass coverage this year.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box on 14.4% of their plays this season, #17-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

    THE BLITZ sees Murray putting up 266.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.6% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.70 and with a negative ROI of -6%.

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™