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Kyler Murray Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
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Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 267.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 261.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 267.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Murray has passed for 267 yards per game this year, #9-best in the league.He's been the #5-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.0% clip.Efficiency-wise, Murray has been #3 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.13 yards per target.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.Indianapolis's safeties grade out as the #27-best in pass coverage this year.Colts defensive ends have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Arizona has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#9-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).The Colts have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.3% of their targets, ranking #7-best in the NFL.The Indianapolis Colts defense ranks #9-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.42.Indianapolis's cornerbacks grade out as the #8-best in pass coverage this year.Colts defensive tackles have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Colts linebackers have ranked #2 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Arizona Cardinals have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cardinals project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 58.9% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Kyler Murray's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Indianapolis Colts enter this game with the #17-best pass defense this season, allowing 252 yards per game through the air.Indianapolis's linebackers grade out as the #12-best in pass coverage this year.The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box on 14.4% of their plays this season, #17-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Murray putting up 266.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.70 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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