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Kyler Murray Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals
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Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 247.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 252.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 247.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Murray has passed for 278 yards per game this year, #8-best in the league.He's been the #1-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 71.9% clip.Efficiency-wise, Murray has been #1 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.70 yards per target.The Cardinals project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.The Chicago Bears have had the #29-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Chicago Bears have had the #23-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bears defensive ends have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Arizona has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Arizona is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 50.5% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#7.5%).The Chicago Bears enter this game with the #10-best pass defense this season, allowing 238 yards per game through the air.The Bears have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.0% of their targets, ranking #9 in the NFL.Bears linebackers have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL).Kyler Murray's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Chicago's defense has been #19-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.97 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Chicago Bears have had the #15-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bears defensive tackles have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Chicago Bears have stacked the box on 14.7% of their plays this season, #16-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 195.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 31.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $33.29. It's return on investment would yeild 29%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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