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Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals
 
 
 
Kyler Murray Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 247.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 252.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 247.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Murray has passed for 278 yards per game this year, #8-best in the league.
  • He's been the #1-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 71.9% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Murray has been #1 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.70 yards per target.
  • The Cardinals project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.
  • The Chicago Bears have had the #29-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Chicago Bears have had the #23-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Bears defensive ends have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Arizona has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • Arizona is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 50.5% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona have faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#7.5%).
  • The Chicago Bears enter this game with the #10-best pass defense this season, allowing 238 yards per game through the air.
  • The Bears have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.0% of their targets, ranking #9 in the NFL.
  • Bears linebackers have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL).
  • Kyler Murray's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Chicago's defense has been #19-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.97 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Chicago Bears have had the #15-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Bears defensive tackles have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Chicago Bears have stacked the box on 14.7% of their plays this season, #16-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 195.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 31.0% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $33.29. It's return on investment would yeild 29%.
     
     
     
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