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K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Right now, K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 31.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 31.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Osborn for a 5.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Osborn's 68.8% completion rate marks him in the #70 percentile among receivers.The Vikings are a 12.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Minnesota's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Vikings have faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).
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CONS:
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The Packers's pass defense ranks #8-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 148 yards per game this season.The Green Bay Packers have allowed 7.48 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #6-highest among NFL opponents.The Green Bay Packers rank #2-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 58.8%.The Minnesota Vikings are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.Minnesota's O-Line grades out as the #30-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Osborn open.Minnesota has run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Osborn ranks in the #57 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 53.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Osborn ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 75.0% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Osborn ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.4% of passes this season.Osborn ranks in the #52 percentile and has put up 8.15 yards per target this season.As a unit, the Packers cornerbacks rank #13 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Packers safeties rank #12 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Minnesota has run the #12-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time (#19 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Minnesota to drop back to pass on 59.1% of their plays in this game (#18-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Osborn to exceed his player prop total 53.1% of the time. He projects for 34.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.84 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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