K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).

PROS:

Osborn has been in the #68 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 68.4% completion rate.

This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.

The Minnesota Vikings have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The Vikings project to run 66.1 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.

Minnesota is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.

This offenses projects to pass 64.0% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Vikings offensive line has given the QB 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota has faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).

CONS:

Opposing wideouts have put up the #27-most yards per target (7.53) against the Rams this season.

Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.

Osborn's offensive line has been #28 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.

NEUTRAL:

Osborn has been on the field for 52.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.

He has run a route on 74.4% of Minnesota's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.

His target share this season has been 12.9% -- #59 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Osborn is projected for -1.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #37 percentile among wide receivers.

In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.69 yards per target this season, ranking in the #38 percentile.

Los Angeles's defense has allowed 152 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#20-most in football).

The Rams have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.3% of their targets this season, (#17-most in the league).

Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.

This offense passes the ball 59.8% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 31.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.3% of the time.

THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.75 and with a negative ROI of -4%.

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