| |
Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 248.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 249.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 248.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
This year, at #11-best in the league, Cousins has passed for258 yards per game.Minnesota's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to complete passes.In a neutral context, Minnesota has run the #8-fastest paced offense this season.Minnesota's offensive has kept pressure off Kirk Cousins for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Vikings have faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (20.8%).The Chicago Bears have had the #25-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Chicago's defensive ends rank #28 this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
This year, the Vikings have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #3-most in football and means Cousins's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Vikings enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Minnesota to drop back to pass on 58.2% of their plays in this game (#23-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Minnesota's O-Line grades out as the #30-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Minnesota has run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Chicago's #3-ranked pass defense has allowed 210 passing yards per game this year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
In terms of Completion%, he has been the #23-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.0% clip.In terms of efficiency, Cousins has been #18 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.18 yards per target.The Minnesota Vikings are projected to run 61.9 plays in this matchup, the #20-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.5% of the time (#17 in the NFL).Chicago has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.8% of their targets, which ranks them #12-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Chicago's defense is #19-best. This is because they allowed 7.71 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Chicago Bears have had the #18-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Chicago Bears have had the #18-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Chicago's defensive tackles rank #22 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Chicago's linebackers rank #15 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Bears, they've stacked the box on 14.7% of their plays this season, #16-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Cousins to exceed his player prop total 55.6% of the time. He projects for 263.9 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $4.52. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
