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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 267.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 272.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 267.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Cousins has passed for 273 yards per game this year, #9-best in the league.He's been the #11-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.9% clip.Minnesota is a 3.0-point underdog, indicating a passing game script.The Vikings offensive line has given Kirk Cousins 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota have faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#20.1%).49ers linebackers have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.San Francisco's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 3 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #26-quickest in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Minnesota has played in the #2-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.This offense passes the ball 59.7% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).Kirk Cousins's offensive line has been #32 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.The San Francisco 49ers enter this game with the #5-best pass defense this season, allowing 225 yards per game through the air.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #3-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box on 10.1% of their plays this season, #26-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Cousins has been #19 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.31 yards per target.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings project to run 62.4 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 59.8% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The 49ers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.7% of their targets, ranking #20 in the NFL.San Francisco's defense has been #13-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.64 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #22-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #12-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.49ers defensive ends have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.49ers defensive tackles have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 260.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.89 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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