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Ke'Shawn Vaughn Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Ke'Shawn Vaughn Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Vaughn for a 33.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Teams run the ball more when it's windy, and forecasts call for 18-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 65.1 plays in this matchup, the #5-most on the game slate.The Buccaneers are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.The defensive tackles of Philadelphia have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Tampa Bay has been the #32-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 29.2% run rate in a neutral context.The defensive ends of Philadelphia have been the #8-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Philadelphia have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Tampa Bay's ranks #15 in that regard this season.This year, the Buccaneers have played in the #12-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Tampa Bay could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #12-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 32.2% of their plays.The Eagles defense has allowed 112 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #16-least in football.The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 4.31 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #12-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of Philadelphia have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Vaughn to exceed his player prop total 56.0% of the time. He projects for 53.2 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $7.56. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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