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Kenny Golladay Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
New York Giants vs Washington Football Team
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Right now, Kenny Golladay Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 37.5 (-105/-125), with an implied projection of 36.0 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 37.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Golladay ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 74.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Golladay ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 82.6% of New York's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Golladay ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.1% of passes this season.This year, the Giants have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Golladay's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The WFT's pass defense ranks #29-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 182 yards per game this season.The Washington Football Team have allowed 8.90 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #27-highest among NFL opponents.The Washington Football Team rank #29-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 69.0%.As a unit, the WFT safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, New York has run the #9-fastest paced offense this season.The Giants enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.New York's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.38 seconds on average this year (#4-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.New York has run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Golladay's 50.3% completion rate marks him in the #6 percentile among receivers.Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.THE BLITZ projects New York to drop back to pass on 51.9% of their plays in this game (#27-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.New York's O-Line grades out as the #28-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Golladay open.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Golladay for a 0.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Golladay ranks in the #35 percentile and has put up 7.55 yards per target this season.As a unit, the WFT cornerbacks rank #16 in pass coverage.The New York Giants are projected to run 62.8 plays in this matchup, the #15-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.3% of the time (#18 in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Giants have faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Golladay to exceed his player prop total 48.6% of the time. He projects for 36.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.33 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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