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Kenny Golladay

Kenny Golladay Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
Kenny Golladay Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 47.7 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -110.
  • He has run a route on 77.1% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 16.7% -- #70 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Golladay is projected for 4.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.10 yards per target this season, ranking in the #68 percentile.
  • New York has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Miami's defense has allowed 192 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#2-most in football).
  • New York is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 64.4% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 63.4% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Giants offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Golladay has been in the #16 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 55.7% completion rate.
  • Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Giants project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.
  • Golladay's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • Golladay has been on the field for 62.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #13-most yards per target (8.64) against the Dolphins this season.
  • The Dolphins have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.3% of their targets this season, (#17-most in the league).
  • Miami Dolphins cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.
  • The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 56.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.6% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.90. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.

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