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Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 32.5 (100/-122), with an implied projection of 30.9 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 36.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -122.
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PROS:
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Bourne ranks in the #99 percentile and has put up 11.03 yards per target this season.Bourne's 81.8% completion rate marks him in the #98 percentile among receivers.The New England Patriots are projected to run 63.9 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.The Patriots enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects New England to drop back to pass on 57.6% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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The Bills's pass defense ranks #1-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 115 yards per game this season.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 6.36 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #1-highest among NFL opponents.The Buffalo Bills rank #3-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.9%.As a unit, the Bills cornerbacks rank #9 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Bills safeties rank #1 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, New England has run the #25-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Bourne ranks in the #46 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 48.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Bourne ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 69.7% of New England's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Bourne ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.3% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Bourne for a 0.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.New England's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Bourne open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Bourne to exceed his player prop total 46.6% of the time. He projects for 29.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.41 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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